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US Home Price Insights – August 2023
Through June 2023 With Forecasts Through June 2024
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 1.6% in June 2023 compared with June 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.5% in June 2023 compared with May 2023 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from June 2023 to July 2023 and increase on a year-over-year basis by 4.3% from June 2023 to June 2024.
Chart 1: Current month-over-month and year-over year U.S. home price growth and projections through June 2024
Annual Home Price Gain Near 11-Year Low in June but Should Rebound
While annual home price growth remained near an 11-year low in June, at 1.6%, the gain was slightly higher than in May, indicating that appreciation could be bottoming out. CoreLogic expects year-over-year U.S. home price appreciation to pick up for the rest of 2023 and reach about 7% by early 2024.
Ten states and the District of Columbia posted annual home price declines in June, with some of the largest losses again recorded in the Northwest. However, since Western states are still grappling with a lack of homes for sale, prices in that region are likely to remain elevated over the long term.
“While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending. And while higher mortgage rates are impacting affordability for buyers with loans, almost four in 10 sales are all-cash transactions. Also, most baby-boomer homeowners have substantial equity, which could be putting pressure on prices in markets where that generation is currently migrating.”
– Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – June 2023
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased by 1.6% year over year in June. Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Washington, D.C. saw annual declines in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Jersey (6.9%) and New Hampshire and Vermont (both 6.4%).
Chart 2: Year-over-year home price changes by state
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Below is a look at home price changes in large U.S. metros in June, with Miami again posting the largest gain at 8.9% year over year.
Chart 3: Year-over-year home price changes by select metro areas
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL is at a very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL; Provo-Orem, UT; Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA and Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL are also at very high risk for price declines.
Chart 4: Top five U.S. markets at risk of annual price declines
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia-Pacific. For more information, please visit www-corelogic-com.corelogicdev.wpengine.com.
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